Rich Trend Trader's Blog

February 14, 2014

Trend Model BUY Signal (SELL Signal Failure) Issued EOD 02/13/2014

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 3:41 pm

Although not unexpected, a Trend Model Sell Failure signal was issued EOD on 2/13/2014.  I am actually now expecting some type of market correction to usher in the new buy signal over the next few days or weeks.  I will post the buy failure condition requirements this afternoon.

MARKET UPDATE (02/19/2014): The market is relentless especially when the sell signals from the market valuation service down signal is issued.  This signal has had a significant failure rate since 2009 and given that it is a fairly popular service and every wall street trading house gets the data it is not surprising.  The losses from being short this signal over the past 5 years make it almost not worth even trading which is why I reduce the amount of capital put into short equities for this type of signal.  Wall street fleecing the retail trader again and again.  The ‘failure’ condition for the new BUY signal will be if all trend model indices (RUT/SML, MID, SPX) close below the low on 02/11/2014.  Other sell signal conditions are available even if the BUY signal does not produce a gain and the market intends to trade back down.

MARKET UPDATE (02/21/2014): The BUY signal failure condition is not longer active after the market signal data of the valuation service.  Therefore, only regular sell signals are now the only option if the market moves back down.


February 4, 2014

Trend Model SELL Signal Issued EOD on 02/03/2014

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 4:44 am

The market conditions outlined in the past market update was initiated on 2/3/2014 and issued a Trend Model SELL Signal.

MARKET UPDATE (02/06/2014): The market is taking off after the low at ~1738 on the SPX which is not surprising given that I saw alot of extreme bearish commentators come out of the woodwork over the past few days on some Elliott Wave blogs that I follow.  These were the same commentators that got crushed last year with the same insistance that the market is going to crash but disappeared when of course it did not.  The current sell signal is valid unless the Trend Model indices (RUT/SML, MID, SPX) close above their previous 5-Day high AND their respective high on 02/03/2014.  I have long ago got out of the guessing game of where the market should go based upon any other factor than price and will just keep following the signals of my price and valuation model as they come.


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