Rich Trend Trader's Blog

April 27, 2012

SELL Failure Signal Issued End of Day 4/26/12 – BUY Signal Issued

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 1:29 am

The market has the valuation service data pegged with another, yet expected, SELL Failure signal.  Since Jan/09 this has been a consistent theme.  The valuation service sell signal failure vastly out number the good signals with a few percent loss for short and long trades.  Will trade back long and see what surprises are in store next.


April 26, 2012

Signal Dates and Index Return Updates – 4/25/2012

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 2:03 am

Will try to get the page updated toward the end of the week.  Working 12-13 hour days and have no internet access in my room while on travel.  Only get 30 minutes of access at the rec center to update my spreadsheets for the daily data and will keep up-to-date on the signal conditions.  The RUT is the only trend model index to close above its previous 5-day high which is an initial prerequisite (all trend model indices) for a SELL Failure signal.

April 24, 2012

SELL Signal Issued Due to BUY Failure End of Day 4/23/2012

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 12:59 am

The market is obviously in the mode of back and forth signals with small losses on each signal.  Trend model indices (RUT and SML, MID, and SPX) all closed below the low on 4/19/12.  Looking for a continuation of the downtrend such that the 20-Day lows and lower Bollinger (20,2) band comes into play or another rally above the previous 5-Day and 10-Day high combinations for potentially another SELL signal failure.


April 18, 2012

SELL Failure End of Day 4/17/12 – BUY Signal Issued

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 6:47 am

Limited internet access while on travel. As indicated, this type of SELL signal has not been too successful since Jan/09. Derived from a commercially available stock market valuation system and active retail asset stripping may still be the market rule. Looking for the small and mid caps to at least close above the 50 SMA and EMA on a closing basis.

April 13, 2012

Trend Model SELL Signal Issued End of Day on 4/13/12

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 8:58 pm

The trend model SELL setup triggered today with a close below the 4/10/12 high on all indices the end of day on 4/13/12.  All longs will be closed out on 4/16/12 and short trades initiated.

Do not have a high level of confidence in this signal type given the number of failures since Jan/09.  There have been 12 setups, 9 sell signals, and 6 of these 9 have failed.  This has been the major impetus for the CASH signal.  Would not be surprised that even if this signal is successful that the market will move back up toward the previous 5-day high on a few indices before continuing back down.


April 11, 2012

Trend Model SELL Setup Issued End of Day 4/10/12 – Full BUY Signal Still in Effect

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 5:15 pm

Although the current Trend Model BUY Signal is still in effect and the BUY Re-Entry Signal was issued for the CASH (50% Long Positions put into Cash) on 4/9/12, a SELL signal setup was issued at the end of day on 4/10/12.  Should the trend model indices (RUT and/or S&P600, S&P400, and S&P500) close lower on the same day and below the high of 4/10/12 a SELL signal will be issued.  A SELL signal could also be issued at levels higher than 4/10/12 with other trend valuation indicator data.  Will provide an update should the trend valuation indicators eliminate the current SELL signal setup or a SELL signal is issued.


CASH (50% Long Positions put into Cash) Signal Rules During BUY Signals Showing Outperformance – 4/10/12

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 2:16 pm

The CASH (50% Long Positions put into Cash) Signal rules during the latest Trend Model BUY signal is showing a slight amount of outperformance over the basic BUY signal.  This was the objective when this signal was developed but note that not every BUY signal would show this type of improvement.  That is the nature of trend rules in that any particular signal will not be a winner but over the long haul the market outperformance will show itself.

I personally traded back long with leveraged ETF’s around 1:20 PM EST on 4/10/12 with the latest BUY Re-Entry Signal.


April 10, 2012

BUY Re-Entry Signal Issued From the Latest CASH (50% Long Positions put into Cash) Signal – 4/9/12

Filed under: Trend Timing Model — Rich Trend Trader @ 1:17 pm

The basic requirement (during a Trend Model BUY Signal) for a BUY Re-Entry signal off of a CASH (50% Long Positions put into Cash) signal is for one or both of the small cap indices to close below it previous 20-day low.  The Russell 2000 closed below the low set on 3/9/12 on 4/9/12.  To add additional technical indicators to the current situation, the Russell 2000 also closed below its lower Bollinger (20,2) band, the S&P400 also closed below its previous 20-day low and lower Bollinger (20,2) band, and the VIX as well as the VIX/TNX closed above their upper Bollinger (20,2) bands.

Obviously, there is no guarantee that the market is going to rally higher from current levels and may even put in another day or two of market lows in addition to the possibility that a SELL signal is issued.  However, the rule has been met to re-enter long positions that were put into cash on the 3/22/12 signal.


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